25–31 October 2026
Every New Raid Rare Crashed
All five Fractured Archive rares lost between 26% and 93% in their first ten days, and most of the high end slid with them.
7 min read · Published Mon 2 Nov
The short version
- All five raid rares crashed. The rarer the drop, the less it fell.
- 23 of the 30 items worth over 150M fell in two weeks. Inquisitor's mace halved.
- Robin Hood hat is in its second memecoin pump. The first one lost 83% in a week.
Every raid rare crashed
The raid opened on 20 October and was cleared over 250,000 times in week one. That much supply has pushed every rare down, and rarity decides how far.
| Item | Drops | 21 Oct | 31 Oct | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obligator | 1 in 15 | 4.09B | 3.04B | −26% |
| Horn of Bran | n/a | 1.33B | 523M | −61% |
| Ascension crossbow | 2 in 15 | 1.25B | 320M | −74% |
| Zorya's tome | 4 in 15 | 238M | 40.7M | −83% |
| Rondache | 5 in 15 | 260M | 19.4M | −93% |
Drop shares are out of every 15 uniques, from the OSRS Wiki. The Wiki doesn't list one for the Horn of Bran.
What each one does, and what it's up against
Obligator
A crush weapon that rolls accuracy two or three times and keeps the best, and hits up to 40% harder on big monsters. It costs about 950K gp an hour to run. It's replacing Inquisitor's mace, which has fallen 48% since launch.
Zorya's tome
A fast magic weapon whose special boosts the next three to five casts. The Wiki rates it close to the Eye of Ayak, which has fallen 22%. The tome now costs only 23% more.
Ascension crossbow
The fastest crossbow, but it fires only ascension bolts, and bolt effects trigger half as often. It isn't replacing the top ranged weapons: the Twisted bow is up 6% and the Zaryte crossbow up 8%.
Rondache
A shield with the same +8 Strength as the Avernic defender and better Defence. Yet the Avernic hilt rose 12%, and the Rondache now costs less.
Horn of Bran
Unlocks the new Zeal prayer. It's down 61%, but there's no older item to compare it against.
Obligator (crush)
- Inquisitor's mace: −47.8%
- Soulreaper axe: −24.0%
- Scythe of Vitur: −8.9%
Zorya's tome (magic)
- Eye of Ayak: −22.2%
- Tumeken's shadow: −7.9%
Ascension crossbow (ranged)
- Twisted bow: +6.3%
- Zaryte crossbow: +8.4%
Rondache (shield)
- Avernic defender hilt: +11.6%
Robin Hood hat: the memecoin hat is back
In September a crypto token, $RSTR, spent its trading fees on Robin Hood hats and claimed to own 8,044 of them within five days. The price went from 0.73M to 10.9M, then lost 83% within a week of Jagex banning crypto tie-ins.
Robin Hood hat sat near 0.74M until 4 September, spiked to 10.9M on 9 September during the $RSTR buying, fell to about 1.8M after Jagex's statement, then climbed from 2.4M to 7.19M in the last week of October
It never fell back below 1.4M, so the hoard was never sold. This week it went from 2.4M to 7.19M, with buyers outnumbering sellers two to one for 22 hours. No other clue item moved. Nobody has said who is buying.
Robin Hood hat rose from 2.8M on 27 October to 7.86M at 17:00 UTC on 29 October as buys outnumbered sells; 100 sells in the peak hour pushed it back to about 7M
This week's news, and what it moved
Each item's change runs from the day before the post to Sat 31 Oct.
Halloween Event, TFA Tweaks & More
Wed 28 Oct · the one that mattered
- The Ascension shard buy limit went from 100 to 30,000. Shards jumped from 657 to 1,973 the same day, with 400K traded in the first hour.
- The Rondache's flat armour now applies after Protection prayers. It fell 47% after patch day, twice as far as the untouched crossbow (−25%).
- Zorya's tome can no longer stack boosted attacks before a fight. It fell 22%, the same as the crossbow, so the nerf barely mattered.
- Teams were getting uniques slightly too often. Jagex fixed that, and a full loot explainer follows next week.
- Emberlight's defence-drain is now capped at 50% at three bosses. Tormented synapse, Emberlight's input, didn't move (−0.4%).
- Disconnecting no longer loses food and potions. Purple sweets held (+1.8%).
- The Halloween event runs until 18 November, with vampyre costume rewards.
| Item | Before | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ascension shards | 657 | 1,791 | +172.6% |
| Ascension bolts | 165 | 189 | +14.5% |
| Zorya's tome | 55.3M | 40.7M | −26.4% |
| Rondache | 32.8M | 19.4M | −40.9% |
| Tormented synapse | 31.6M | 31.5M | −0.4% |
Deep Sea Diving Expansion
Thu 29 Oct · a poll, nothing decided
- It proposes underwater jewellery making, underwater Slayer, a Burial at Sea quest, and new farming patches: Celastrus, Spirit tree, hardwood and Bittercap mushroom.
- Gems and silver fell anyway. Celastrus seeds, which would gain a new patch, rose 20%.
- If it passes, Jagex's target is early 2027, so this is early positioning, not a reaction to anything confirmed.
| Item | Before | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celastrus seed | 13,076 | 15,674 | +19.9% |
| Uncut ruby | 891 | 786 | −11.8% |
| Silver bar | 131 | 109 | −16.8% |
| Uncut red topaz | 897 | 681 | −24.1% |
Old School Roadmap
Tue 27 Oct
- It fixed the dates: Quest Month from 3 November, Hardcore Worlds on 4 November, then Menaphos and Dungeons of Gielinor in spring 2027.
- Menaphos brings the true Soul Altar, with soul runes crafted at 90 Runecraft. Soul runes are already down 21.8% this month, at 301.
- Nothing named in the post moved more than 2% this week.
Introducing Melvor Idle 2
Thu 29 Oct
A separate idle game. No effect on the GE.
What to watch next week
Prices are Saturday's daily average. Ranges cover the last three months.
Raid drop rates
Due next week · Jagex
- Jagex will publish how loot and contribution work, the first official drop rates.
- It has already cut the team unique rate slightly, so supply slows a little from here.
- If the rates come out rarer than the market assumes, the rares recover.
- The Rondache has the most room to move: it's better on paper than the Avernic hilt, yet 12M cheaper.
| Item | Price | Week | Since 21 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rondache | 19.4M | −54.5% | −93% |
| Zorya's tome | 40.7M | −43.2% | −83% |
| Ascension crossbow | 320M | −47.9% | −74% |
| Horn of Bran | 523M | −18.6% | −61% |
| Obligator | 3.04B | −20.6% | −26% |
| Avernic defender hilt | 31.7M | +7.1% | +12% |
Obligator and tome running costs
Ongoing
- An hour of Obligator use burns about 120 shards, 2,400 nature runes and 2,400 death runes.
- Zorya's tome uses 3 astral and 2 nature runes per cast, about 680 gp.
- Natures and deaths both rose about 9% this week. Every drop in the weapons' prices brings in more users.
- Shards top out near 2,000. At that price, mining them (about 130 an hour) pays 260K gp an hour, which brings in more supply.
| Item | Price | Week | 3-month range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ascension shards | 1,791 | +13.3% | 657 – 1,974 |
| Nature rune | 149 | +8.8% | 129 – 171 |
| Death rune | 171 | +9.6% | 151 – 199 |
| Astral rune | 120 | 0.0% | 98 – 131 |
The gear being replaced
Ongoing
- Inquisitor's mace is at a three-month low, half its high. It keeps falling while the Obligator gets cheaper; a steady Obligator is the sign it has found a floor.
- The Eye of Ayak is near its low too, now only 23% cheaper than Zorya's tome.
| Item | Price | Month | 3-month range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inquisitor's mace | 188M | −35.3% | 188M – 387M |
| Eye of Ayak | 33.0M | −9.6% | 32.1M – 46.5M |
The Graveyard quest
November, date not set · OSRS Wiki
- A Master quest needing 65 Sailing, 65 Agility, 56 Woodcutting and 54 Fletching. Rewards include 35K Agility XP, 35K Sailing XP and two 75K combat lamps.
- It unlocks a 65 Agility course with the fastest marks of grace rates in the game, and Jagex has teased a Fremennik graceful kit.
- Marks buy amylase crystals (100 per 10 marks), and each crystal makes a dose of stamina potion. More marks means cheaper staminas.
- Both are already falling and sit near their three-month lows. Jagex hasn't published the mark rate, so release day decides how much further they go.
| Item | Price | Month | 3-month range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stamina potion(4) | 2,667 | −23.6% | 2,228 – 4,218 |
| Amylase crystal | 401 | −10.3% | 365 – 622 |
Gathering changes
11 November · OSRS Wiki schedule
- Wesley will crush coconuts into coconut milk. Milk has already fallen 69% this month and coconuts 32%, so most of it is priced in.
- The walk to the law rune altar gets shorter. Faster crafting adds supply, and law runes already sit near their low.
- The Wiki notes both changes may not ship on the 11th.
| Item | Price | Month | 3-month range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coconut milk | 230 | −69.4% | 189 – 752 |
| Coconut | 951 | −32.3% | 900 – 1,580 |
| Law rune | 116 | −5.7% | 114 – 127 |
Robin Hood hat
Ongoing
- In September the price broke only after Jagex spoke up: 10.9M to 1.8M within a week.
- Watch for a second statement or bans. Until then the price depends on a buyer nobody has named.
Later this month
OSRS Wiki schedule
- 3 November: Quest Month begins. At least five surprise quests, kept secret until release. Jagex says any notable rewards will be polled first, so there's nothing to trade on yet.
- 4 November: Hardcore Worlds open, with their own separate economy that doesn't reach the main GE.
- 17 November: the move to Jagex Accounts begins.
- Late November: GE improvements, including clearer buy-limit indicators and price discovery tools.